Anand Gopal

Promises of cash and jobs–rather than ideological pledges–help prompt fighters to lay down their arms. But questions remain about the program’s efficiency.

Alasay, Afghanistan - Deep in a mountain valley north of Kabul, Gulab Shah and his fellow insurgents were under siege. It was mid-March, and a French-led military offensive had been pounding their village night after night. A few of his comrades managed to escape into the surrounding mountains, but most were killed.

In the midst of these battles, a progovernment tribal leader met with Mr. Shah’s men and made them an appealing offer: Stop fighting, and we will give you amnesty and a job. The men cautiously accepted.

They joined a program aimed at reconciling rank-and-file insurgents with the government, an initiative that figures to be a central component in the Obama administration’s strategy to stabilize this country. Local tribal elders credit this reconciliation process, together with the French-led military offensive, for a stark turnaround in the security situation here.

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The umbrella organization includes many different groups fighting the Afghan government and Western forces.

Kabul, Afghanistan - As the Obama administration ramps up focus on Afghanistan and Pakistan, insurgents from both countries have teamed up to confront the rising US troop presence. While the insurgents often get labeled as the “Taliban,” in reality there are several groups fighting the Afghan government and Western forces, and they often act independently of one another and have distinct command structures, ideologies, and strategies. Here, the Monitor maps out the diversity of the insurgency.

Who are the Afghan insurgents?

The most established group is the Taliban, led by Mullah Omar and others who held top positions in the Afghan government in the 1990s. The Taliban is strongest in Kandahar and Helmand provinces in the south, where it has deep roots. US officials believe that senior leaders are based in Pakistan, possibly Quetta.

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Insurgents attacked three government offices in a heavily fortified area Wednesday, a day before US envoy Holbrooke’s visit.

Kabul, Afghanistan - Insurgents attacked three government offices in Kabul on Wednesday, killing at least 26 and wounding nearly 60. The assault was one of the most complex and daring to take place in the Afghan capital since 2001.

Five armed militants stormed the Ministry of Justice building, in a crowded section of downtown, killing some workers and taking others hostage. Afghan security forces exchanged gunfire for hours before freeing the hostages and killing all of the insurgents. At the same time, suicide bombers assailed a government prison affairs office in the north of the city, while a gunman opened fire outside the education ministry before being killed by police.

The attacks come as the Obama administration is reviewing US strategy in Afghanistan. US special representative Richard Holbrooke is due to visit Kabul Thursday from Pakistan as part of a South Asian tour, and President Obama is expected to decide within days whether to send as many as 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan.

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The Afghan War Deciphered

If there is an exact location marking the West’s failures in Afghanistan, it is the modest police checkpoint that sits on the main highway 20 minutes south of Kabul. The post signals the edge of the capital, a city of spectacular tension, blast walls, and standstill traffic. Beyond this point, Kabul’s gritty, low-slung buildings and narrow streets give way to a vast plain of serene farmland hemmed in by sandy mountains. In this valley in Logar province, the American-backed government of Afghanistan no longer exists.

Instead of government officials, men in muddied black turbans with assault rifles slung over their shoulders patrol the highway, checking for thieves and “spies.” The charred carcass of a tanker, meant to deliver fuel to international forces further south, sits belly up on the roadside.

The police say they don’t dare enter these districts, especially at night when the guerrillas rule the roads. In some parts of the country’s south and east, these insurgents have even set up their own government, which they call the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (the name of the former Taliban government). They mete out justice in makeshift Sharia courts. They settle land disputes between villagers. They dictate the curricula in schools.

Just three years ago, the central government still controlled the provinces near Kabul. But years of mismanagement, rampant criminality, and mounting civilian casualties have led to a spectacular resurgence of the Taliban and other related groups. Today, the Islamic Emirate enjoys de facto control in large parts of the country’s south and east. According to ACBAR, an umbrella organization representing more than 100 aid agencies, insurgent attacks have increased by 50% over the past year. Foreign soldiers are now dying at a higher rate here than in Iraq.

The New Nationalist Taliban

The burgeoning disaster is prompting the Afghan government of President Hamid Karzai and international players to speak openly of negotiations with sections of the insurgency.

But who exactly are the Afghan insurgents? Every suicide attack and kidnapping is usually attributed to “the Taliban.” In reality, however, the insurgency is far from monolithic. There are the shadowy, kohl-eyed mullahs and head-bobbing religious students, of course, but there are also erudite university students, poor, illiterate farmers, and veteran anti-Soviet commanders. The movement is a mélange of nationalists, Islamists, and bandits that fall uneasily into three or four main factions. The factions themselves are made up of competing commanders with differing ideologies and strategies, who nonetheless agree on one essential goal: kicking out the foreigners.

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In provinces just south of Kabul, the insurgents have a shadow government that polices roads and runs courts.

Porak, Afghanistan - After a gang of thieves had continually terrorized an Afghan neighborhood near here months ago, locals decided they’d had enough. “We complained several times to the government and even showed them where the thieves lived,” says Ahmad, who goes by one name.

But the bandits continued to operate freely. So the villagers turned to the Taliban.

The militants’ parallel government here in Logar Province – less than 40 miles from Kabul, the capital – tried and convicted the men, tarred their faces, paraded them around, and threatened to chop off their hands if they were caught stealing in the future. The thieves never bothered the locals again.

In several provinces close to Kabul, the government’s presence is vanishing or already nonexistent, residents say. In its place, a more effective – and brutal – Taliban shadow government is spreading and winning local support.

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KABUL, Aug 20 (IPS) - The ambush that killed 10 NATO soldiers outside of Kabul on Tuesday, the worst battlefield loss for western forces since the war began, was the capstone in a week of high-profile insurgent activities in Afghanistan.

Although North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) forces returned fire, killed dozens of rebels and repelled the assault, the attack was a major propaganda victory for the Taliban and highlights a growing predicament faced by western officials: the insurgency appears to be growing in confidence despite losing most battles with international forces.

Nearly 100 rebels ambushed a team of French soldiers with rockets and mortars in a mountain defile near Sarobi, a town about 30 km to the east of the capital city. In addition to the 10 dead, 21 were wounded in what became an hours-long firefight in which the U.S. provided air cover for their beleaguered allies.
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Kabul, Afghanistan - A Wednesday attack that killed three Western aid workers in Afghanistan raises concerns that the Taliban is attempting to force the expulsion of all foreign humanitarian workers from the troubled country.

“This was the worst attack in many years and is a major escalation of hostilities,” says Sayed Rahim Satar, vice chairman of the Afghan NGO Coordinating Bureau.

The assault signals a shift in the Taliban’s strategy toward a policy of direct confrontation with nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), says Waliullah Rahmani of the Kabul Center for Strategic Studies.

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KABUL, Jul 24 (IPS) - Dozens of civilians were killed over the weekend in Afghanistan, the latest in the trend of spiraling violence that has engulfed the embattled nation. The civilian casualties, Taliban attacks and troop casualty numbers are putting increasing strain on the Western-led coalition, leading some to speculate that the war is unwinnable.

On Sunday, international forces killed four Afghan police officers and five civilians during a fire-fight in the western province of Farah. In a separate incident that same night, coalition-fired mortar rounds killed at least four civilians in the eastern Paktika province. On Monday, in Laghman province, also in the east, Taliban fighters fired a missile into a fuel truck, killing six civilians.
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Militant attacks are increasing outside of the Taliban’s southern stronghold, such as Sunday’s on President Karzai.

Kabul, Afghanistan - The attempted assassination of President Hamid Karzai Sunday came as the latest sign of a trend worrying Western officials: that the insurgency is spreading from the Taliban stronghold of the south to the central and northern regions of the country.

The militant attack, the biggest in Kabul since mid-March, came during a public ceremony. Despite a massive security presence, militants managed to fire bullets and rockets at the president, killing two nearby lawmakers and a boy.

The insurgency in Afghanistan has not been “contained,” Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell testified before a Senate subcommittee in February. “It’s been sustained in the south, it’s grown a bit in the east, and what we’ve seen are elements of it spread to the west and the north.”

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KABUL, Apr 28 (IPS) - Violence levels have increased in Afghanistan in the first quarter of 2008, compared to the first part of 2007, a series of newly-released studies indicate.

On Sunday, Afghan President Hamid Karzai escaped an assassination bid while attending a military parade in Kabul. A member of parliament and a 10-year-old child were among the dead. A spokesman for the Taliban said the fighters wanted to show they can infiltrate such high security events.
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